Incorporating Uncertainty into Fishery Models

Management in the Face of Uncertainty: A Case Study with Amberjack

Gregg T. Waugh and Susan Shipman

doi: https://doi.org/10.47886/9781888569315.ch3

Abstract.— This paper focuses on greater amberjack management in the South Atlantic region, with an examination of the deficiencies in data collection and resulting impacts on the amberjack stock assessment and management decisions. This is a case study of uncertainty leading to more conservative, risk-averse management. Amberjack management in the South Atlantic is illustrative of the debate of whether you do what you can with what you have versus not doing anything until you have good information. Ultimately one has to ask what are the consequences to resource management. While National Standard #2 says you must base your decisions on the best scientific information, scientific information entails more than just the stock assessment results. It entails other biological information as well as social and economic information. The South Atlantic Fishery Management Council went as far as we could without opening ourselves up to a legal challenge. We attempted to balance concern for the resource, Florida’s desire to be more conservative, skepticism about the data, and the fishermen’s desire to fish.